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If you study the biographies of successful people, you will notice a pattern: luck plays a significant role in success. However, if you look deeper, you will notice that most also had a broad luck surface area. Yes, they were in the right place at the right time, but they made the effort to be in a right place. If it wasn't that particular place and time, there might have been another. Maybe it wouldn't have resulted in the same degree of success, but they probably would have still been successful.

We are still very close to our ancestors who roamed the savannah. The formation of our beliefs is fraught with superstitions--even today (I might say, especially today). Just as one day some primitive tribesman scratched his nose, saw rain falling, and developed an elaborate method of scratching his nose to bring on the much-needed rain, we link economic prosperity to some rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, or the success of a company with the appointment of the new president "at the helm."

luck surface area, coined by entrepreneur Jason Roberts. You may recall from geometry that the surface area of an object is how much area the surface of an object covers. In the same way that it is a lot easier to catch a fish if you cast a wide net, your personal luck surface area will increase as you interact with more people in more diverse situations.

The strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down planning and focus on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities when they present themselves. So I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or "incentives" for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can.

The biggest component of luck is timing. When the universe and I have been on a compatible schedule--entirely by chance--things have worked out swimmingly. When my timing has been off, no amount of hard work or talent has mattered.

Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools--by definition, they do not know that they belong to such a category.

From the Renaissance and the Enlightenment to the mid-20th century, luck was something to be mastered, dominated, and controlled; everyone agreed that you should do what you could, not focus on what you couldn't. Ralph Waldo Emerson captured this ethos when he wrote: "Shallow men believe in luck, believe in circumstances.... Strong men believe in cause and effect."

Process creates events that others see as luck.

But sales in the western United States were comatose. I later learned that the salesperson for that region wasn't a fan of Dilbert. So when he went on sales calls he kept the Dilbert sales packet in his briefcase and showed other comics. Then the universe got involved: The salesman had a heart attack and died in a hotel room on the road. His replacement, John Matthews, identified Dilbert as the most sellable comic in United Media's stable. And sell it he did, to every newspaper he visited. John is the best salesman I've ever seen. Had he not been available for the job, or had the original salesman lived, Dilbert might have been a small comic that ran in the Northeast for a few years before fading to obscurity.