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what happens on average when a thousand people do something once is not a clue to what will happen when one person does something a thousand times. In this, it seems, evolved human instinct may be a much better at statistics than modern economists.fn4 To explain this distinction using an extreme analogy, if you offered ten people PS10m to play Russian roulette once, two or three people might be interested, but no one would accept PS100m to play ten times in a row.