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When we hear things like "There is a sixty percent chance that the conflict between these two countries will escalate to war" or "There is a ten percent probability that a rogue nation will detonate an atomic device in the next ten years," these are not calculated probabilities of the first kind; they are subjective expressions of the second kind, about how confident the speaker is that the event will occur. Events of this second kind are not replicable like the events of the first kind. And they're not calculable or countable like playing cards or fires on Elm Street. We don't have a bunch of identical rogue nations with identical atomic devices to observe to establish a count. In these cases, a pundit or educated observer is making a guess when they talk about "probability," but it is not a probability in the mathematical sense. Competent observers may well disagree about this kind of probability, which speaks to their subjectivity.

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.probability probability can be objective or subjective. Subjective probability is based on the opinion of the observer. Objective probablity is based on mathematical formula

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