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The second fallacy lies in failing to take into account forecast degradation as the projected period lengthens. We do not realize the full extent of the difference between near and far futures. Yet the degradation in such forecasting through time becomes evident through simple introspective examination--without even recourse to scientific papers, which on this topic are suspiciously rare. Consider forecasts, whether economic or technological, made in 1905 for the following quarter of a century.