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In a 1968 paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Robert E. Knox and James A. Inkster described two experiments they conducted at two different horse tracks. They asked as many people as possible to rate the chances of their horses' winning. Some of the people were interviewed right before their bets were placed, and others right after. The group questioned after they made their bets rated their horses' chances significantly higher. This supported the scientists' prediction that, post-bet, bettors were more confident in their choices. Evidently, simply the act of committing to the bet convinced bettors that their odds of winning had increased (see cognitive dissonance in Chapter 1). Remaining data-driven can help you avoid this mistake. The "power of positive thinking" can only get you so far.